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Events

Events with no start time, such as a season or an election.

Which side, and how much

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What these columns mean
Place
Its place in the day: by how many top 200 wallets hold a position on it, then by what they hold. Never by a score.
Settles
The date the event's first market is due to settle. Polymarket can settle a market later than this.
Event
The event as Polymarket names it. It opens the event breakdown: every market of the event, and what the top 200 wallets hold on each.
Top 200 wallets
How many different top 200 wallets of the event's category hold a position on it, all its markets together. The event breakdown counts the same wallets.
PlaceIts place in the day: by how many top 200 wallets hold a position on it, then by what they hold. Never by a score.SettlesThe date the event's first market is due to settle. Polymarket can settle a market later than this.EventThe event as Polymarket names it. It opens the event breakdown: every market of the event, and what the top 200 wallets hold on each.Top 200 walletsHow many different top 200 wallets of the event's category hold a position on it, all its markets together. The event breakdown counts the same wallets.
1Which company has best AI model end of 2026?AI32 wallets
2GPT Astra 6.1+ released by...?AI25 wallets
3Which company has the best AI model end of November?AI24 wallets
4Gemini Carbon released by...?AI20 wallets
5Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?AI16 wallets
6Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?AI16 wallets
7Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Arena Debut?AI15 wallets
8Largest Company end of December 2026?AI14 wallets
9OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?AI13 wallets
10Gemini Carbon released on...?AI13 wallets
11AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?AI11 wallets
12When will Gemini Carbon be released?AI10 wallets
13How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?AI10 wallets
14GPT Astra 6.1+: Text Arena Debut?AI9 wallets
15Largest Company end of November 2026?AI9 wallets
16Next Fable Model (5.2+): Text Arena Debut?AI8 wallets
17Will any AI model reach ___ Coding Arena Score by December 31?AI8 wallets
18Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?AI8 wallets
19Next GPT Sol (6.2+) released by...?AI8 wallets
20Which companies will be acquired before 2027?AI7 wallets
21Next GPT Terra Model (5.7+): Text Arena Debut?AI7 wallets
22When will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released?AI7 wallets
23Kimi K3.1 Pro: Text Arena Debut?AI7 wallets
24Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?AI7 wallets
25Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?AI6 wallets
26Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?AI6 wallets
27Who will launch a Muse-like personal agent before 2027?AI6 wallets
28Highest Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?AI6 wallets
29Will Databricks' valuation hit __ by December 31?AI6 wallets
30Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...?AI5 wallets
31Top 5 Most Searched People on Google 2026AI5 wallets
32Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) released by...?AI5 wallets
33Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?AI5 wallets
342nd Largest Company end of December 2026?AI5 wallets
35Anthropic announces a Millennium Prize solution by...?AI5 wallets
363rd Largest Company end of December 2026?AI5 wallets
37Exponential Time Hypothesis disproof confirmed by...?AI4 wallets
38#1 Searched Passing on Google 2026?AI4 wallets
39GPU rental prices (B200) end of 2026?AI4 wallets
40#1 Searched Person on Google 2026?AI4 wallets
41Next Claude Opus Model (5.6+): HLE-Diamond Debut?AI4 wallets
42Will Stripe's valuation hit __ by December 31?AI4 wallets
43Highest score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?AI4 wallets
44Next Fable Model (5.2+): Text Arena Rank Debut?AI4 wallets
45Who will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for in 2026?AI4 wallets
46Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?AI4 wallets
47Highest OpenAI score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?AI4 wallets
48Highest Kimi score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?AI4 wallets
49GPT Astra 6.1+: Text Arena Rank Debut?AI4 wallets
50GPU rental prices (H100) end of 2026?AI4 wallets
51Which math problems will AI solve in 2026?AI4 wallets
52SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?AI4 wallets
53Claude Fable 5.2+: Output Token Price Debut?AI4 wallets
54GPU rental prices (H200) hit___ in 2026?AI4 wallets
55Third-best AI Agent Lab end of November?AI4 wallets
56GPU rental prices (H200) end of November?AI4 wallets
57Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) end of November?AI4 wallets
58Next Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) released by...?AI4 wallets
59Will Canva’s valuation hit __ by December 31?AI4 wallets
60GPU rental prices (H100) hit___ in 2026?AI4 wallets
61OpenRouter token usage week of November 2?AI4 wallets
62How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?Space4 wallets
63Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?AI3 wallets
64How many cities will Waymo operate in by December 31?AI3 wallets
65Next Fable Model (5.2+): Humanity's Last Exam Debut?AI3 wallets
66OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?AI3 wallets
67Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?AI3 wallets
68#1 Searched Passing on Google in the US 2026?AI3 wallets
69Anthropic announces bankruptcy by...?AI3 wallets
70Kimi K3.1 Pro: Text Arena Rank Debut?AI3 wallets
712nd Largest Company end of November 2026?AI3 wallets
72Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of November?AI3 wallets
73Gemini Carbon: HLE-Diamond Debut?AI3 wallets
74Best AI model on November 9?AI3 wallets
75GPT Astra 6.1+ released on...?AI3 wallets
76Which company has #1 AI model end of November? (Style Control On)AI3 wallets
77#1 Searched Actor on Google 2026?AI3 wallets
78Next Muse Wonder (1.1+) released by...?AI3 wallets
79Next Gemini Argon released by...?AI3 wallets
80#1 Searched Person on Google in the US 2026?AI3 wallets
81SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?AI3 wallets
82Which company has the best Text-to-Video AI end of November?AI3 wallets
83#2 AI Lab end of November? (Style Control On)AI3 wallets
84GPU rental prices (H200) end of 2026?AI3 wallets
85Will Marvell Q3 Data Center revenue be above __?AI3 wallets
86OpenRouter AI token usage Oct 26 to Nov 22?AI3 wallets
87Third-best AI Lab end of November?AI3 wallets
88Which company has #1 AI model end of December? (Style Control On)AI3 wallets
89Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?AI3 wallets
90Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...?AI3 wallets
91What will Claude Fable's output token price hit in 2026?AI3 wallets
92Will Intuit Q1 Online Ecosystem revenue be above __?AI3 wallets
93What will Anthropic's frontier output token price hit in 2026?AI3 wallets
94Next Grok Model (4.8+): Text Arena Debut?AI3 wallets
95Third-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of November?AI3 wallets
96Next Claude Opus Model (5.6+): Text Arena Debut?AI3 wallets
97Will NVIDIA (NVDA) Q3 Data Center Revenue be above __?AI3 wallets
98Next GPT Luna (6.1+) released by...?AI3 wallets
99Which company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of December?AI3 wallets
100Claude Opus 5.6+: Output Token Price Debut?AI3 wallets

Showing the first 100 of 241.

About this page
Which events are listed
  • An event is listed when a wallet in the top 200 of its category holds a position on one of its markets still open. A wallet that has gone quiet keeps its place in the top 200 for as long as its score would still put it there.
  • The position clears the Tail feed's bars: bought above 0c and at most 80c, worth at least $10, and not held on both sides. A buy made since we last read the wallet counts too, as it does on the event breakdown.
  • Today and tomorrow are US Eastern days for every reader. An event is listed from the day it starts until its last market settles. Only sports and esports events have a start time here: an election or a price is listed with no date, whatever date Polymarket gives it.
  • Each day is in order of how many top 200 wallets hold a position on an event, one wallet one vote, then of what they hold. A score weighs nothing here.