Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2025-08-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x008e6bab4ea999edc9342942b672198f06c736479e21b721a3a4c24bdcaaa56d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,801
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,628
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,801 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed No | 21c | 4,709$1,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,003.38 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Yes | 77c | 3,095$2,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706.96 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64b5…7543backed No | 23c | 2,293$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.62 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 79c | 893.58$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.73 | 190 | 55.8%106 W · 84 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Yes | 80c | 162.5$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Yes | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe782…e7d9backed Yes | 76c | 130$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 18c | 75.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9e…11d4backed Yes | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cc…8026backed Yes | 77c | 52.01$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc48d…8a40backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +24%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6484…8864backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 79c | 48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 91 | 56%51 W · 40 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0e…78afbacked Yes | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55da…839abacked Yes | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6163…8507backed Yes | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AS Monaco FC win on 2025-08-16?this page
- Will AS Monaco FC vs. Le Havre AC end in a draw?No won
- Will Le Havre AC win on 2025-08-16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.