Tennis · resolved market
Next Gen ATP Finals, Group A: Martin Landaluce vs Rafael Jodar
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0142ce05a20ad7e4eb16049767bf0e3b07c2bd92b65cd89c4eff751090a3ef32
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jodarof Landaluce, Jodar
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,909
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,308
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,909 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Landaluce | 1c | 1,710$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9425…f025backed Landaluce | 66c | 354.22$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Landaluce | 13c | 320.58$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.89 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Landaluce | 37c | 317.46$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.46 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf59b…3c66backed Jodar | 63c | 317.46$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.46 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf353…b287backed Jodar | 17c | 234.9$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 83 | 13.3%11 W · 72 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 7cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f61…9131backed Landaluce | 39c | 204.49$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.75 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Landaluce | 35c | 157.05$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.97 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x652f…e2afbacked Jodar | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46fb…2b75backed Jodar | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +166.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9380…a275backed Landaluce | 50c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.17per pick | 58cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1e…d5dfbacked Jodar | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 182 | 50%91 W · 91 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Next Gen ATP Finals, Group A: Martin Landaluce vs Rafael Jodarthis page
- Landaluce vs. Jodar: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Landaluce vs. Jodar: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won
- Landaluce vs. Jodar: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Under won
- Landaluce vs. Jodar: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Landaluce vs. Jodar: Total Sets O/U 3.5Under 3.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Landaluce vs JodarJodar won
- Set Handicap: Jodar (-1.5) vs Landaluce (+1.5)Jodar won
- Set Handicap: Jodar (-2.5) vs Landaluce (+2.5)Jodar won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.