Olympics · resolved market
Will Leon Marchand (FRA) win Gold in Men's 200m Butterfly?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x015815860440723ac5f558033933b9c8d5636a73f4d0ee1b9c6c4a266cb0b9f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,651
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,445
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,651 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5230…58f5backed No | 2c | 6,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x241e…c7bfbacked No | 16c | 2,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd8…741bbacked Yes | 36c | 1,358$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$863.38 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed No | 68c | 499.99$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.99 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb542…0fc7backed Yes | 30c | 496.66$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.66 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +124.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a72…12debacked Yes | 60c | 293.31$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.31 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f83…6cd9backed No | 40c | 194.66$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.86 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed No | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c2…0a62backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cb…b857backed No | 34c | 65.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +7.5wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…517cbacked Yes | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed2…56e0backed Yes | 33c | 45.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed No | 71c | 21.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Leon Marchand (FRA) win Gold in Men's 200m Butterfly?this page
- Will Ilya Kharun (CAN) win Gold in Men's 200m Butterfly?No won
- Will Kristof Milak (HUN) win Gold in Men's 200m Butterfly?No won
- Will Noe Ponti (SUI) win Gold in Men's 200m Butterfly?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.