Serie A · resolved market
Lazio vs. Juventus: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x019e530df6061017847af622bbeab174d38a98c7c2f211789ed4b29b0355d5c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,646
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,848
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,646 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 43c | 6,407$2,755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,755.01 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 57c | 4,013$2,293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,720.09 | 2,575 | 45.6%1,174 W · 1,401 L | +12.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3102…187cbacked Under | 58c | 2,350$1,363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$987 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 51c | 1,874$961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$912.77 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Under | 57c | 999.98$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.99 | 253 | 39.5%100 W · 153 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf763…414fbacked Over | 49c | 791.06$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.54 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x35a6…ab4dbacked Over | 41c | 727.99$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.89 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 56c | 631.17$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.71 | 333 | 57.4%191 W · 142 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3802…caddbacked Over | 46c | 322.89$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.53 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over | 44c | 227.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.11 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc794…d09cbacked Over | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0521…cc4abacked Over | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d84…7b78backed Over | 43c | 202.33$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +3.8wins | +0.29per pick | 63cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7860…4694backed Under | 40c | 202$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.2 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 36cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x495f…06b0backed Over | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Over | 41c | 191.65$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.58 | 169 | 42.6%72 W · 97 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1543…623cbacked Over | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 57cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3b…b968backed Under | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7541…09d1backed Over | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b46…4f6ebacked Over | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed Over | 42c | 110$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 124 | 52.4%65 W · 59 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd31c…dac9backed Over | 38c | 110$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8816…7082backed Over | 69c | 80$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 109 | 51.4%56 W · 53 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8be…2ef8backed Over | 44c | 65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 31c | 52.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.24 | 592 | 40.7%241 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Over | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 58c | 48.26$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 41c | 48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 272 | 26.8%73 W · 199 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked Under | 42c | 45.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.21 | 102 | 60.8%62 W · 40 L | +8.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2d…fb60backed Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…7c47backed Under | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Under | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e0e…1512backed Over | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…36f2backed Over | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 70 | 64.3%45 W · 25 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lazio vs. Juventus: O/U 2.5this page
- Lazio vs. Juventus: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Spread: Juventus (-0.5)Lazio won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.