Token Launches · resolved market
Dogecoin above $0.16 on April 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02dd46d85f86304b41437f4f0acd7299866b824c496433f91dd8e2d5d54280c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,877
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,474
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,877 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e14…3003backed No | 0c | 23,897$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd69b…1ed8backed No | 13c | 1,832$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.05 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd685…8be9backed No | 46c | 1,000$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69eb…46e5backed No | 8c | 900$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 30c | 600$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.2 | 167 | 40.7%68 W · 99 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa6…de7abacked No | 55c | 600$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed No | 21c | 420$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.14 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb5…a393backed Yes | 40c | 297.61$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.79 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd292…b066backed Yes | 79c | 233.36$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b6f…340bbacked Yes | 65c | 232.82$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73b5…5993backed No | 52c | 213.22$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 114 | 30.7%35 W · 79 L | -15.2wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x436a…f32abacked No | 22c | 136.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d46…cefbbacked No | 10c | 109.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a67…e5c8backed No | 21c | 93.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed No | 49c | 75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x952b…c958backed No | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.