Stocks · resolved market
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $310 on August 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0329e27dc45130dddb3e1f81995879d8f31895fab19f107d3b2bf4077d5785f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,664
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,657
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,664 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 8 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 30c | 2,488$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.68 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…4d55backed Yes | 70c | 2,303$1,603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699.97 | 1,111 | 43.7%486 W · 625 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x982a…6851backed No | 27c | 404.69$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.96 | 848 | 46%390 W · 458 L | +51.5wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01bf…886ebacked Yes | 55c | 181.81$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cd…29b4backed Yes | 66c | 108.24$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x767b…85f5backed No | 28c | 95.35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb607…60fbbacked No | 57c | 69$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.07 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78ca…9d00backed Yes | 72c | 54.36$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.