South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Boca Juniors vs. CA Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04050a649eaf12467a3ec30a6b50748fc897e2d880a93197b5decc6ec9f75b20
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,867
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,362
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,867 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae72…7437backed Over | 0c | 30,320$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 36c | 2,665$957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,708.5 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…d7a0backed Over | 60c | 2,274$1,361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,361.01 | 148 | 29.7%44 W · 104 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 41c | 2,019$833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,185.45 | 297 | 47.1%140 W · 157 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 47c | 1,725$814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$910.6 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d44…6b0abacked Under | 1c | 1,310$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,293.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +3,804.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 68c | 757.35$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.49 | 100 | 69%69 W · 31 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 59c | 621.45$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.06 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 146 | 54.1%79 W · 67 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4588…d206backed Over | 43c | 399.99$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe220…f862backed Over | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7018…290abacked Over | 43c | 300$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 71c | 280.83$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 126 | 45.2%57 W · 69 L | -10.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 39c | 232.93$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7baf…99a7backed Over | 16c | 184.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 62 | 8.1%5 W · 57 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 47c | 171.37$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.17 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…1fb3backed Over | 60c | 167.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3597…775fbacked Over | 60c | 166.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1703…1ab4backed Over | 62c | 161.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 60cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 46c | 153$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.38 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab8…a331backed Over | 54c | 150.69$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.37 | 80 | 57.5%46 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 63c | 127.19$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 493 | 41%202 W · 291 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 46c | 108.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 359 | 58.8%211 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 60c | 104.01$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.33 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Under | 32c | 87.17$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.41 | 135 | 48.9%66 W · 69 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea1…df66backed Over | 56c | 79.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b7…37d5backed Over | 25c | 60.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Under | 31c | 33.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 235 | 42.1%99 W · 136 L | -13.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f85…87d5backed Under | 42c | 29.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc92…6564backed Over | 74c | 23.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0079…b852backed Over | 62c | 22.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Over | 50c | 22.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Boca Juniors vs. CA Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza: O/U 2.5this page
- CA Boca Juniors vs. CA Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CA Boca Juniors vs. CA Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza: O/U 1.5Over won
- CA Boca Juniors vs. CA Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza: O/U 3.5Under won
- CA Boca Juniors vs. CA Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CA Boca Juniors (-1.5)CA Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza won
- Spread: CA Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza (-1.5)CA Boca Juniors won
- Spread: CA Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza (-2.5)CA Boca Juniors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.