Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Mt. St. Mary's vs. Canisius
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04af93dfe78a77ed38fbaf18bf6c7903c5b4a2b6837c0d01626fcead5249fc13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mt. St. Mary'sof Mt. St. Mary's, Canisius
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,359
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,434
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,359 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3aec…0f2dbacked Canisius | 28c | 1,500$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e85…4d99backed Mt. St. Mary's | 72c | 1,500$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…0787backed Mt. St. Mary's | 72c | 1,393$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.23 | 284 | 45.1%128 W · 156 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Canisius | 27c | 1,380$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.6 | 391 | 44.5%174 W · 217 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e81…843cbacked Canisius | 27c | 1,111$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Mt. St. Mary's | 73c | 713.15$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.55 | 530 | 57.4%304 W · 226 L | +33.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95b2…ba55backed Canisius | 28c | 419$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.32 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 41cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0a…e4eabacked Mt. St. Mary's | 77c | 371.43$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.43 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 75cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a2…3c55backed Canisius | 28c | 289$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.92 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfe…dc74backed Mt. St. Mary's | 72c | 255$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a82…6817backed Mt. St. Mary's | 72c | 232$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.96 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 53cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd48e…f5d2backed Mt. St. Mary's | 72c | 227$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Canisius | 24c | 209.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.35 | 283 | 35%99 W · 184 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c24…2bd9backed Canisius | 28c | 176$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a16…295bbacked Canisius | 28c | 166$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x801b…8a51backed Mt. St. Mary's | 72c | 125$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 59cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a76…1c13backed Mt. St. Mary's | 72c | 108$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…13febacked Canisius | 28c | 107$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b64…2bcbbacked Mt. St. Mary's | 72c | 107$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.96 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeddc…ba08backed Canisius | 28c | 93$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa561…9363backed Canisius | 28c | 93$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked Mt. St. Mary's | 75c | 88.45$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Canisius | 25c | 88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 348 | 42.8%149 W · 199 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2686…7a67backed Mt. St. Mary's | 77c | 85.79$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5da…25f5backed Mt. St. Mary's | 72c | 78$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee3…4969backed Mt. St. Mary's | 72c | 68$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…acbcbacked Canisius | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ff…f710backed Canisius | 28c | 59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe69f…52debacked Mt. St. Mary's | 78c | 56.77$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe82f…b3e0backed Mt. St. Mary's | 72c | 53$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2283…5fa5backed Mt. St. Mary's | 72c | 48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2a…855ebacked Mt. St. Mary's | 72c | 42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Mt. St. Mary's | 76c | 41.3$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 158 | 51.9%82 W · 76 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Mt. St. Mary's | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 820 | 48.2%395 W · 425 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…cd8cbacked Mt. St. Mary's | 72c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…1078backed Mt. St. Mary's | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 247 | 59.5%147 W · 100 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdce2…4086backed Mt. St. Mary's | 72c | 33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 61cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b12…6d3bbacked Mt. St. Mary's | 72c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0e…56e2backed Mt. St. Mary's | 74c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8410…2494backed Mt. St. Mary's | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +78.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe136…81cbbacked Mt. St. Mary's | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.