TailMyPicks
Market

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Ivory vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Nemiga Gamingof Ivory, Nemiga Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,406
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,658

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,406 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 8 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3322…7dc2backed Ivory14c1,169$159 inLost-$158.958148.1%39 W · 42 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa35c…a113backed Ivory17c441.17$75 inLost-$7561745.7%282 W · 335 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x974f…cd80backed Ivory25c342.46$85 inLost-$84.9155147.5%262 W · 289 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9637…cefdbacked Nemiga Gaming55c48.8$27 inWon+$21.961877.8%14 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick69cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe60f…1490backed Nemiga Gaming61c43.6$27 inWon+$16.95578.2%43 W · 12 L+5.7wins+0.10per pick68cpaid+15.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb7ab…16d0backed Nemiga Gaming55c29.1$16 inWon+$12.9843067%288 W · 142 L+31.9wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+11.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x04a1…d6e6backed Nemiga Gaming71c24.14$17 inWon+$72254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebf5…b1d0backed Nemiga Gaming55c23.88$13 inWon+$10.7528650%143 W · 143 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.