Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05f7b5e0fb62c3fe2140d96e41351a1499fa3a72687c7e7b85b24b87e885a08d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nigma Galaxyof Roar Gaming, Nigma Galaxy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,329
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,134
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,329 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Roar Gaming | 14c | 3,357$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.29 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c07…5feabacked Nigma Galaxy | 70c | 999.99$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 179 | 54.2%97 W · 82 L | -12.6wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Roar Gaming | 12c | 845.3$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.83 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07fa…f5cdbacked Roar Gaming | 25c | 676.74$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 462 | 40.7%188 W · 274 L | +15.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Roar Gaming | 24c | 659.17$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.45 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Roar Gaming | 18c | 462.99$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.12 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfc…4f30backed Roar Gaming | 10c | 125.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 377 | 45.4%171 W · 206 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Roar Gaming | 17c | 98.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e47…bdbfbacked Nigma Galaxy | 66c | 31.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 149 | 63.1%94 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81fe…4089backed Nigma Galaxy | 66c | 27.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 132 | 62.9%83 W · 49 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1620…227bbacked Nigma Galaxy | 71c | 24.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 137 | 62.8%86 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe53b…fe03backed Nigma Galaxy | 71c | 15.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | -7.7wins | -0.13per pick | 70cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group ANigma Galaxy won
- Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 WinnerNigma Galaxy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.