Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Cal Poly vs. CSU Fullerton
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06018262cdf0c172c630bbd4b019e19cd4f2bf1ba6f6121d59a279ded87f3977
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cal Polyof Cal Poly, CSU Fullerton
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,805
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,729
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,805 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Cal Poly | 56c | 3,297$1,841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,456.89 | 530 | 57.4%304 W · 226 L | +33.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…0787backed CSU Fullerton | 44c | 1,400$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.55 | 284 | 45.1%128 W · 156 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed Cal Poly | 72c | 247.58$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.36 | 429 | 48.5%208 W · 221 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…6214backed Cal Poly | 75c | 181$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.25 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +27%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked CSU Fullerton | 25c | 153$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.89 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e80…791fbacked CSU Fullerton | 28c | 110$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfa…f191backed Cal Poly | 72c | 110$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab3c…5093backed CSU Fullerton | 28c | 54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…abadbacked CSU Fullerton | 25c | 49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77ff…5582backed CSU Fullerton | 29c | 47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e3…08ccbacked Cal Poly | 50c | 46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +122.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x31f6…2ff3backed Cal Poly | 50c | 43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a14…f13abacked CSU Fullerton | 29c | 38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Cal Poly | 71c | 35.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa166…f00bbacked CSU Fullerton | 50c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18e2…38eabacked CSU Fullerton | 50c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…e71bbacked CSU Fullerton | 50c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdde5…e43cbacked Cal Poly | 50c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…ffc7backed Cal Poly | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd667…7a55backed CSU Fullerton | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d4…10bfbacked Cal Poly | 71c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b5…7062backed Cal Poly | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e62…3fcebacked Cal Poly | 50c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…d1dabacked Cal Poly | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf80…0a90backed CSU Fullerton | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93b8…4c10backed Cal Poly | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba87…103bbacked Cal Poly | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b94…94c2backed CSU Fullerton | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f65…1e5dbacked Cal Poly | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a09…6f92backed Cal Poly | 71c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 76cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.