Token Launches · resolved market
Hyperliquid Up or Down on February 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x090f068af93d6ba975a7d659595e1dc2425eae173ca0ec5a135014fc7fcd8e59
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Downof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,889
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,299
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,889 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x04f8…ac46backed Down | 55c | 5,000$2,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,250 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x576e…6247backed Up | 23c | 5,000$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…6b01backed Down | 60c | 4,996$2,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,998.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0713…b7d6backed Up | 40c | 3,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x595e…19bfbacked Up | 45c | 3,000$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,350 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x735d…c9a0backed Up | 40c | 2,580$1,032 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,032 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6a…a750backed Down | 77c | 2,000$1,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…f887backed Up | 40c | 1,560$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x663b…4daabacked Down | 77c | 1,550$1,194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x540b…f584backed Down | 77c | 1,450$1,117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9630…249abacked Up | 45c | 1,105$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ed…aa6fbacked Down | 60c | 1,010$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +106.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a51…5752backed Down | 60c | 1,010$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…d89ebacked Down | 60c | 980$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e13…b386backed Up | 45c | 895$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b21…99f2backed Up | 40c | 856$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07a9…2ab0backed Up | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2993…a2f8backed Down | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.