Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Murray State vs. Belmont
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a1335e22abcf88e89813cab7103e62624c8fbad2c51449b5d97a8461f0201fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Belmontof Murray State, Belmont
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,202
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,209
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,202 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Belmont | 57c | 120$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.36 | 530 | 57.4%304 W · 226 L | +33.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Belmont | 57c | 114$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.81 | 605 | 51.4%311 W · 294 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Murray State | 38c | 59.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 188 | 50%94 W · 94 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Murray State | 39c | 44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 348 | 42.8%149 W · 199 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c23…efefbacked Murray State | 41c | 42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fed…de26backed Murray State | 41c | 39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x909a…d743backed Murray State | 41c | 38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5068…df3dbacked Murray State | 41c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6182…f35ebacked Murray State | 41c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47f0…9b92backed Belmont | 59c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…1078backed Belmont | 62c | 33.87$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 247 | 59.5%147 W · 100 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57da…39c1backed Murray State | 41c | 31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8af5…75a0backed Belmont | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Belmont | 51c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6632…d422backed Belmont | 59c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb4b…baa0backed Murray State | 41c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9e…62d8backed Belmont | 59c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x127c…03eebacked Belmont | 59c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5794…be17backed Belmont | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01db…d0ffbacked Belmont | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…7684backed Belmont | 59c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fad…24f6backed Belmont | 59c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd31d…5299backed Murray State | 43c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x985d…fb43backed Belmont | 58c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…ed48backed Belmont | 59c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.