Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Austin Peay vs. Bellarmine
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b74d3fe511704dba498e2c53edef98728603f99ca9fd6a5d68b97ef0d28e6d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bellarmineof Austin Peay, Bellarmine
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,969
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,070
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,969 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b1a…bf3abacked Austin Peay | 70c | 1,130$793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Austin Peay | 67c | 1,000$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.1 | 391 | 44.5%174 W · 217 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Austin Peay | 46c | 878.26$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Bellarmine | 31c | 749.55$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.25 | 530 | 57.4%304 W · 226 L | +33.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…0787backed Bellarmine | 45c | 695.89$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.61 | 284 | 45.1%128 W · 156 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed Bellarmine | 31c | 510$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.8 | 429 | 48.5%208 W · 221 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x193d…2eb4backed Bellarmine | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.71 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5834…f0cbbacked Austin Peay | 65c | 284.45$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.45 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -7.3wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Bellarmine | 35c | 108.51$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.75 | 348 | 42.8%149 W · 199 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Bellarmine | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 605 | 51.4%311 W · 294 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Bellarmine | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Austin Peay | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -5.7wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8342…13c9backed Austin Peay | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +873.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0cd…a271backed Bellarmine | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…9b9fbacked Austin Peay | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7890…7060backed Austin Peay | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x223c…d753backed Bellarmine | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0a…5e0dbacked Austin Peay | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…6342backed Austin Peay | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eae…1833backed Bellarmine | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf6…09a7backed Bellarmine | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc620…138abacked Bellarmine | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5532…d7fdbacked Austin Peay | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c5…3793backed Bellarmine | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce7…95cebacked Austin Peay | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.