Tennis · resolved market
ITF Maringa: Mateus Alves vs Luis Felipe Miguel
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c1dbf93a2bfb81a45c88680cc3ab36bf70ab128b2f8b4c4f8f5c6c3dda50845
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mateus Alvesof Mateus Alves, Luis Felipe Miguel
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,785
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,894
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,785 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Luis Felipe Miguel | 30c | 711.74$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.52 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ec…23bdbacked Mateus Alves | 75c | 700$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.5 | 167 | 69.5%116 W · 51 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf01f…e8fbbacked Luis Felipe Miguel | 25c | 700$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.5 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d6…9357backed Mateus Alves | 70c | 336.37$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.91 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Mateus Alves | 68c | 235.58$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.71 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a14…9fe4backed Luis Felipe Miguel | 37c | 207.91$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.78 | 409 | 35.7%146 W · 263 L | +7.8wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7454…57f2backed Luis Felipe Miguel | 35c | 143.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 209 | 49.8%104 W · 105 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1740…529ebacked Mateus Alves | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 70 | 62.9%44 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb7…3644backed Mateus Alves | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 264 | 51.5%136 W · 128 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53ae…f71ebacked Mateus Alves | 68c | 93.94$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 390 | 39.5%154 W · 236 L | -46.8wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Mateus Alves | 67c | 83.51$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.73 | 653 | 46.4%303 W · 350 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c7…3b08backed Mateus Alves | 73c | 81.86$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 509 | 58%295 W · 214 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8711…d2d0backed Luis Felipe Miguel | 33c | 64.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 433 | 58.4%253 W · 180 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…0436backed Luis Felipe Miguel | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 237 | 54.4%129 W · 108 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Mateus Alves | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 830 | 47%390 W · 440 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d25…e306backed Mateus Alves | 77c | 25.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.