La Liga · resolved market
Cádiz CF vs. Celta Fortuna: O/U 0.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0da44f590b6227ef3fe29d83ae3b0c9e5851bccc181a638d6d656757a8aec0c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,399
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,404
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,399 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 1,811$976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$835.29 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Over | 46c | 1,600$736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$736 | 378 | 29.4%111 W · 267 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 48c | 785.41$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.54 | 999 | 33.4%334 W · 665 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked Over | 51c | 610.96$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 51c | 551.39$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.54 | 417 | 51.8%216 W · 201 L | +18.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9958…b9acbacked Over | 49c | 551.02$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c99…8b23backed Over | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 42c | 306.77$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.45 | 834 | 44.6%372 W · 462 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaba…cf38backed Over | 46c | 174.25$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 47c | 91.15$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.88 | 1,508 | 38.7%583 W · 925 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 65c | 77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 340 | 50%170 W · 170 L | +16.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2e…a948backed Over | 43c | 64.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 175 | 41.1%72 W · 103 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ace…23d1backed Over | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +87.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 48c | 28.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 174 | 66.1%115 W · 59 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56d8…f6abbacked Over | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 55c | 20.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 277 | 58.5%162 W · 115 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…e91cbacked Over | 73c | 14.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cádiz CF vs. Celta Fortuna: O/U 0.5this page
- Cádiz CF vs. Celta Fortuna: Cádiz CF O/U 0.5Under won
- Cádiz CF vs. Celta Fortuna: O/U 1.5Under won
- Cádiz CF vs. Celta Fortuna: O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: Cádiz CF (-1.5)Celta Fortuna won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.