Lol · resolved market
Game Handicap: FNC (-1.5) vs Shifters (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0dd0caff479e88675011c056cb5ff746b2d6ab153142ec527006534a4be0e521
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fnaticof Fnatic, Shifters
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,958
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,188
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,958 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1341…0853backed Shifters | 63c | 1,651$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040.29 | 1,827 | 45.6%834 W · 993 L | +26.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2c…5172backed Fnatic | 37c | 616.33$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.29 | 436 | 40.6%177 W · 259 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc621…7c5cbacked Fnatic | 37c | 584.29$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.1 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +5.3wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Shifters | 60c | 294.04$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.89 | 1,611 | 48.4%780 W · 831 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb503…7552backed Fnatic | 37c | 260.05$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.83 | 163 | 46.6%76 W · 87 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf035…0924backed Fnatic | 40c | 254.13$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.48 | 340 | 50%170 W · 170 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802b…7d57backed Fnatic | 37c | 231.45$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.81 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3b…5fa5backed Shifters | 65c | 87.23$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.79 | 655 | 63.2%414 W · 241 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Fnatic | 35c | 80$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Shifters | 55c | 73.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.43 | 2,521 | 47.3%1,193 W · 1,328 L | -34.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ad…6979backed Shifters | 65c | 65.15$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 861 | 44.1%380 W · 481 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x045d…185dbacked Fnatic | 45c | 64.64$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.63 | 634 | 58.4%370 W · 264 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a6…7401backed Fnatic | 35c | 62.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.67 | 527 | 50.5%266 W · 261 L | +13.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d38…6f08backed Shifters | 63c | 49.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 629 | 49.9%314 W · 315 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf19…79bbbacked Fnatic | 39c | 48.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.38 | 168 | 58.9%99 W · 69 L | +18.3wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x642c…21a7backed Fnatic | 54c | 42.47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.54 | 350 | 54.6%191 W · 159 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Fnatic | 35c | 33.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.92 | 608 | 49.5%301 W · 307 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Shifters | 65c | 32.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -8.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -28%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Shifters | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 751 | 50.7%381 W · 370 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ac…9189backed Fnatic | 50c | 29.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6202…8872backed Shifters | 53c | 25.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 398 | 59.8%238 W · 160 L | +31.2wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed Fnatic | 70c | 23.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 413 | 43.8%181 W · 232 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: FNC (-1.5) vs Shifters (+1.5)this page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- LoL: Shifters vs Fnatic (BO3) - LEC Regular SeasonFnatic won
- LoL: Shifters vs Fnatic - Game 1 WinnerFnatic won
- LoL: Shifters vs Fnatic - Game 2 WinnerFnatic won
- Total Kills Over/Under 26.5 in Game 1?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.