Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: FSV Mainz 05 (-0.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e08d789b4275044118597a59076c6eaddd4450b70efbd1cd7bffc10db3ce0c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Werder Bremenof FSV Mainz 05, Werder Bremen
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,286
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,167
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,286 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9158…fa7bbacked FSV Mainz 05 | 51c | 7,269$3,707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,707.19 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Werder Bremen | 49c | 4,441$2,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,266.05 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Werder Bremen | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x087a…a510backed Werder Bremen | 51c | 1,200$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed FSV Mainz 05 | 49c | 284.82$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.97 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Werder Bremen | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked FSV Mainz 05 | 49c | 194$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.41 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76da…30a2backed Werder Bremen | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fe…c8c2backed Werder Bremen | 51c | 98.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.1 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…4f68backed Werder Bremen | 54c | 93.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.13 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3e…7fccbacked FSV Mainz 05 | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc6…0f52backed Werder Bremen | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: FSV Mainz 05 (-0.5)this page
- FSV Mainz 05 vs. Werder Bremen: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.