South American Leagues · resolved market
Will EC Bahia win on 2025-12-03?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e7a163573a2a7220ae1bdda75fcab65fef78e133c03085a2d0a71bfd8ee4860
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,750
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,477
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,750 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc16b…8404backed No | 19c | 12,794$2,431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,430.85 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed No | 20c | 2,050$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 436 | 18.8%82 W · 354 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 19c | 1,765$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.07 | 817 | 40.8%333 W · 484 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 20c | 1,280$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 16c | 1,065$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.93 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 10c | 798.19$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.18 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 14c | 769.56$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.88 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 16c | 754.98$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.62 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed No | 19c | 666$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.54 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +11.9wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…0dd9backed No | 19c | 500.38$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.07 | 144 | 22.9%33 W · 111 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed No | 20c | 275.68$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.14 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 24c | 241.32$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.92 | 332 | 51.8%172 W · 160 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked No | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked No | 20c | 181$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 192 | 39.1%75 W · 117 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Yes | 77c | 175$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.75 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked No | 17c | 149.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 312 | 26.6%83 W · 229 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked No | 20c | 82.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Yes | 75c | 75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc10d…4532backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c2e5backed Yes | 78c | 26.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 64cpaid | -29%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd1…509abacked Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc65…49d8backed Yes | 80c | 24.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will EC Bahia win on 2025-12-03?this page
- Will EC Bahia vs. SC Recife end in a draw?No won
- Will SC Recife win on 2025-12-03?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.