Stocks · resolved market
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $305 on March 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0eacd80f48f3f3ff3d82a8a3781bc2b3223904c7d5cc28503028c6e3b2e69d00
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,817
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,817 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x969f…4d55backed Yes | 63c | 42,215$26,543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,672 | 1,111 | 43.7%486 W · 625 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x589d…d79abacked No | 37c | 40,000$14,797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,797.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 27c | 1,624$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.81 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a0…e45ebacked No | 9c | 583.33$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecc2…10afbacked No | 58c | 432$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.1 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5214…d67bbacked No | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61e9…0e4cbacked Yes | 79c | 138.46$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 36c | 100.01$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce6…16ccbacked No | 62c | 80.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9f…2817backed No | 72c | 76.74$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb22f…6debbacked No | 61c | 32.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcce…c161backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed No | 71c | 22.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.