Australian A League · resolved market
Will Macarthur FC win on 2025-11-08?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0eb6215672c029ee439e7b984957002dee65c51fe37570be18d05f7068feeeaf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,064
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,065
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,064 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4537…491dbacked No | 78c | 1,295$1,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.95 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +81%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 22c | 777.62$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.38 | 300 | 55.3%166 W · 134 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88de…1091backed Yes | 22c | 587.23$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.19 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed No | 75c | 421.49$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.69 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17d5…6438backed Yes | 25c | 281.96$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.49 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1822…0e6abacked Yes | 23c | 249.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 22cpaid | +150%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 77c | 240$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb125…69ebbacked No | 10c | 108.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 6cpaid | +400%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b2…d045backed No | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…6d58backed No | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Macarthur FC win on 2025-11-08?this page
- Will Sydney FC vs. Macarthur FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Sydney FC win on 2025-11-08?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.