Euroleague · resolved market
Monaco vs. FC Bayern Munchen
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f04e6f5f7d9e527bb988031c8df2dccb16198d4784eecfe2c76ad858d69401c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Monacoof Monaco, FC Bayern Munchen
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Euroleagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,402
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,652
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,402 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Euroleague is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Euroleague | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed FC Bayern Munchen | 22c | 5,698$1,257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,257.26 | 148 | 47.3%70 W · 78 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5027…1a6fbacked Monaco | 78c | 4,843$3,774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,069.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +156.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked FC Bayern Munchen | 19c | 3,261$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.57 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e33…afb3backed FC Bayern Munchen | 22c | 3,198$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Monaco | 79c | 1,489$1,172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.93 | 135 | 48.9%66 W · 69 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Monaco | 75c | 1,106$829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.34 | 222 | 31.5%70 W · 152 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed FC Bayern Munchen | 11c | 191$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 124 | 54%67 W · 57 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed Monaco | 79c | 124.1$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed FC Bayern Munchen | 19c | 67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9061…9510backed FC Bayern Munchen | 20c | 57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +89.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd466…0706backed FC Bayern Munchen | 79c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Monaco | 80c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2061…1ed1backed Monaco | 80c | 26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Euroleague and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.