Token Launches · resolved market
Hyperliquid Up or Down on May 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x108ab06cad53ce6942b70c7213e0f706c82ca17d34c3dbb9bba920c5b75d0572
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,888
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,070
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,888 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd637…d4c1backed Down | 46c | 920$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab4…9464backed Up | 54c | 780$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe8…6fd2backed Up | 53c | 595$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ca…e168backed Up | 54c | 425$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b6…f248backed Down | 47c | 405$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dca…9130backed Down | 47c | 405$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3987…a82dbacked Down | 46c | 370$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3a…236cbacked Down | 46c | 300$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf758…ab6abacked Up | 54c | 295$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 62cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab99…b3afbacked Up | 53c | 235$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 62cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7beb…7f6bbacked Up | 54c | 220$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa90c…82e8backed Up | 54c | 220$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe30…0e3bbacked Up | 54c | 220$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02e4…7793backed Down | 64c | 175$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…5408backed Down | 47c | 175$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6306…53ffbacked Up | 71c | 135$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a3…dad3backed Up | 53c | 135$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6efc…c084backed Down | 46c | 130$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf28b…cf10backed Down | 53c | 70$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1e…6623backed Down | 46c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x482b…34acbacked Down | 52c | 65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e7a…e5d7backed Down | 46c | 65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x553a…d31ebacked Down | 46c | 55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa06a…2aa7backed Up | 54c | 55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e92…77d2backed Down | 46c | 55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8952…08efbacked Down | 52c | 55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3f…4a6ebacked Up | 77c | 55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7492…4cbbbacked Up | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.