TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Sashi Esportof Sashi Esport, 9INE
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$442,724
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$511,081

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $442,724 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 512 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x30c7…ac3bbacked 9INE46c35,000$16,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,084.7275452.7%397 W · 357 L+27.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe40e…9770backed Sashi Esport61c31,821$19,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,561.5117951.4%92 W · 87 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e5e…7315backed Sashi Esport54c24,773$13,443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,330.0422843.9%100 W · 128 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-0.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked 9INE48c20,955$9,982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,982.385,02855%2,763 W · 2,265 L+112.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed 9INE40c14,925$5,981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,981.1367041.8%280 W · 390 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddc3…029cbacked Sashi Esport54c11,208$6,022 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,185.7992456.8%525 W · 399 L+2.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Sashi Esport72c11,141$8,053 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,088.113,25650.3%1,637 W · 1,619 L+97.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed 9INE47c10,462$4,878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,877.642,61051.7%1,349 W · 1,261 L+16.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84d0…95babacked 9INE13c7,831$993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$993.441315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-51.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdfaf…d959backed 9INE22c6,663$1,466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,465.853435.3%12 W · 22 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-23.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4e3c…d370backed Sashi Esport55c6,378$3,504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,874.452347.8%11 W · 12 L-2.6wins-0.11per pick59cpaid-21.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed 9INE48c6,344$3,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,076.0481843.2%353 W · 465 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b59…3aa6backed 9INE44c6,187$2,715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,715.4984658.4%494 W · 352 L+60.7wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+15.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed 9INE47c6,000$2,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,819.9671645.9%329 W · 387 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed 9INE46c5,874$2,704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,704.3866551.9%345 W · 320 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3da8…80c3backed Sashi Esport50c5,000$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,50033359.8%199 W · 134 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe52c…01f4backed 9INE48c4,815$2,293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,293.064542.2%19 W · 26 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1032…c372backed Sashi Esport48c4,470$2,131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,338.77157.7%41 W · 30 L+8.6wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+27.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Sashi Esport78c4,283$3,342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$941.332,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed 9INE19c4,232$798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$797.542,52043%1,084 W · 1,436 L+42.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb51…d2f5backed 9INE44c4,000$1,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7602857.1%16 W · 12 L+3.3wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+25%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8a90…7e68backed Sashi Esport55c3,660$2,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,648.152958.6%17 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed 9INE32c3,630$1,171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,171.344,22049.2%2,078 W · 2,142 L+61.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed 9INE46c3,500$1,610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,609.6956941.3%235 W · 334 L-21.0wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3371…9f90backed 9INE48c3,453$1,644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,643.76650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+16.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed 9INE43c3,039$1,313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,312.9943544.6%194 W · 241 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed 9INE20c3,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60051252.3%268 W · 244 L+16.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8adb…e4f6backed 9INE47c3,000$1,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,41029449.3%145 W · 149 L-10.3wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x024c…5fa1backed 9INE38c2,969$1,143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,142.7437145.6%169 W · 202 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed 9INE57c2,606$1,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,480.4417249.4%85 W · 87 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked 9INE37c2,600$956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$955.582,20547.6%1,049 W · 1,156 L-4.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed 9INE45c2,457$1,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,093.3960434.1%206 W · 398 L-12.2wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked 9INE36c2,453$886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$886.454,89737.4%1,832 W · 3,065 L-245.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf876…1deebacked Sashi Esport52c2,415$1,248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,167.0919546.2%90 W · 105 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed 9INE48c2,366$1,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,124.8938841.8%162 W · 226 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4ec…c574backed Sashi Esport53c2,264$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,064.1548350.9%246 W · 237 L-20.9wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x67c4…f0a4backed 9INE22c2,241$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.0313937.4%52 W · 87 L-8.8wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Sashi Esport51c2,128$1,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,042.7210735.5%38 W · 69 L-5.0wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-24.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Sashi Esport55c2,116$1,163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$953.451,62144.8%726 W · 895 L+3.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ae1…c891backed Sashi Esport51c2,086$1,071 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,015.5711151.4%57 W · 54 L+5.6wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf61a…5943backed Sashi Esport80c2,013$1,610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.559040%36 W · 54 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed 9INE46c2,000$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9201,08050.9%550 W · 530 L+38.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x40e8…88a4backed Sashi Esport59c2,000$1,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83017162%106 W · 65 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed 9INE43c2,000$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$859.9978639.4%310 W · 476 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed 9INE48c1,870$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9001,99853.7%1,073 W · 925 L+5.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x787f…d40cbacked Sashi Esport52c1,786$927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$859.8127740.8%113 W · 164 L-15.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-13.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa1b6…e0a0backed Sashi Esport56c1,786$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$785.718253.7%44 W · 38 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf679…2d3dbacked 9INE30c1,779$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538.4136440.1%146 W · 218 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-21.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x36f9…4df8backed Sashi Esport52c1,771$921 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$850.1118356.3%103 W · 80 L+6.8wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8bb6…98fabacked Sashi Esport56c1,766$989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$777.241080%8 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+40.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked Sashi Esport55c1,674$921 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$753.281,00752.4%528 W · 479 L+27.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4cb0…57e0backed 9INE48c1,659$796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$796.326144.3%27 W · 34 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9621…0a73backed Sashi Esport53c1,604$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$753.77580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick52cpaid+69.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf268…ecf6backed Sashi Esport59c1,508$890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$618.487851.3%40 W · 38 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7069…325bbacked Sashi Esport54c1,500$807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69394445.7%431 W · 513 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08e7…4f63backed 9INE20c1,477$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2909842.9%42 W · 56 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a30…34b1backed Sashi Esport73c1,453$1,062 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.212958.6%17 W · 12 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick69cpaid-19.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6da3…95a0backed Sashi Esport54c1,346$727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$619.163145.2%14 W · 17 L-4.7wins-0.15per pick60cpaid-27.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked 9INE36c1,318$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.663,21751.3%1,649 W · 1,568 L+89.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc30…c8a5backed 9INE31c1,310$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40061138.1%233 W · 378 L-10.6wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc754…4b1dbacked Sashi Esport52c1,293$667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$626.133740.9%138 W · 199 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1448…e868backed Sashi Esport52c1,288$665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$623.846936.2%25 W · 44 L-4.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-24%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed 9INE39c1,215$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.836,46642.9%2,777 W · 3,689 L-78.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x729b…1b33backed Sashi Esport60c1,208$722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$486.361947.4%9 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Sashi Esport52c1,201$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$570.457641.5%239 W · 337 L-8.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x026b…8804backed 9INE36c1,150$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.8418154.7%99 W · 82 L+14.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+14.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2b26…57e9backed Sashi Esport61c1,145$697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.871,48458%861 W · 623 L+66.1wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b9c…a518backed 9INE48c1,130$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.1616544.8%74 W · 91 L-8.8wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Sashi Esport70c1,115$783 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.833,88836.6%1,423 W · 2,465 L-197.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Sashi Esport56c1,079$607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472.1766446.4%308 W · 356 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc48…24c3backed Sashi Esport53c1,075$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505.253441.2%14 W · 20 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b0e…bd73backed Sashi Esport54c1,070$577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.544944.9%22 W · 27 L-4.7wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-23.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x01b8…82c1backed Sashi Esport56c1,050$588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46212651.6%65 W · 61 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4378…1bdebacked Sashi Esport52c1,030$535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$494.23425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-51.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c9e…fbfdbacked Sashi Esport55c1,025$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465.4654343.5%236 W · 307 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x764a…83d3backed Sashi Esport54c1,000$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4605944.1%26 W · 33 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-13.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Sashi Esport53c1,000$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4704671.7%33 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick72cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48b3…d21cbacked 9INE50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcef…fd7fbacked Sashi Esport55c994.5$547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.5312846.1%59 W · 69 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked 9INE23c958.26$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.417,89250.5%3,983 W · 3,909 L+182.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7cd5…12a2backed Sashi Esport52c954.98$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.132050%10 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd18a…619cbacked Sashi Esport53c926.44$494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.241250%6 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+57.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x69f2…a80dbacked Sashi Esport54c925.93$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.9310262.7%64 W · 38 L+6.9wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+14.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbc33…eb35backed Sashi Esport55c915.42$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.422853.6%15 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick55cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x056b…303ebacked Sashi Esport55c909.18$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.185650%28 W · 28 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab12…764ebacked Sashi Esport58c900$522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37822266.7%148 W · 74 L+12.0wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd385…34fbbacked Sashi Esport53c857.65$455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.113652.9%72 W · 64 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb25…eb12backed 9INE49c854.13$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.3350051.4%257 W · 243 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12bc…f246backed 9INE18c838.16$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe59c…4da7backed Sashi Esport64c832.6$533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.7415264.5%98 W · 54 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8562…0a61backed Sashi Esport53c828$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.982259.1%13 W · 9 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+28.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa72a…5685backed Sashi Esport51c819.32$418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.4730841.6%128 W · 180 L-13.3wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-13.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xffda…c1fcbacked Sashi Esport54c813$439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.98771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick62cpaid+15.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1025…7e11backed 9INE47c800$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37955441.2%228 W · 326 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14e6…90dfbacked 9INE4c800$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-51.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeebb…0b96backed 9INE43c785.17$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.535739.2%140 W · 217 L+0.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42dd…5d2bbacked Sashi Esport62c753.12$469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.185442.6%23 W · 31 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea9b…2be5backed 9INE48c752.13$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.0211742.7%50 W · 67 L-6.7wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x59e2…1c55backed Sashi Esport53c750.25$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.749852%51 W · 47 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda20…cb8dbacked Sashi Esport54c750$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3452962.1%18 W · 11 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+22.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.