Fifa International · resolved market
Will Nicaragua win on 2026-03-27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x134965e7dbfd9bc46d180f0a7752b58f20342a6392ce668314f131f5355b16a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,177
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,718
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,177 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6297…1302backed Yes | 10c | 1,912$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87b0…3b4ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,001$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…de80backed Yes | 3c | 917.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb89a…1784backed Yes | 4c | 890$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb7b…ff55backed Yes | 3c | 781$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b39…21debacked Yes | 3c | 664$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61a3…e913backed Yes | 3c | 654$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0cc…041fbacked Yes | 3c | 611$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc349…bfe5backed Yes | 3c | 584$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf237…9f6abacked Yes | 4c | 574$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c67…e838backed Yes | 4c | 529.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9136…a0fdbacked Yes | 3c | 521$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25d8…a71fbacked Yes | 3c | 500.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae38…90c7backed Yes | 3c | 490$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4933…5209backed Yes | 3c | 469$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4aa…3a65backed Yes | 3c | 468.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4e…0c0cbacked Yes | 3c | 453$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe153…db7dbacked Yes | 3c | 452$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88e8…5829backed Yes | 3c | 450$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f84…e4b4backed Yes | 4c | 447.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -22%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9383…ddb7backed Yes | 4c | 425$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ac…ebbfbacked Yes | 3c | 367$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b27…f45cbacked Yes | 3c | 341$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da4…43c3backed Yes | 3c | 322.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…22ebbacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nicaragua win on 2026-03-27?this page
- Will Russia vs. Nicaragua end in a draw?No won
- Will Russia win on 2026-03-27?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.