South American Leagues · resolved market
CD Riestra vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13e665e5a1842f5829a0eef232b3c6597eb33f9d6dad27c02c2e43c7977d5923
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,278
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,405
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,278 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Under | 47c | 8,629$4,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,087.43 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 52c | 5,769$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,769.12 | 171 | 46.2%79 W · 92 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 55c | 1,564$861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.72 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed3…2811backed Over | 65c | 769.54$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.54 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 35c | 730.86$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.7 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 51c | 651.73$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.47 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcb…78cfbacked Under | 45c | 555.08$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.55 | 110 | 59.1%65 W · 45 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 62c | 424.68$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.99 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad84…1897backed Over | 55c | 327.27$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.27 | 124 | 39.5%49 W · 75 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Under | 31c | 301.1$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.24 | 128 | 27.3%35 W · 93 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 54c | 159.99$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.37 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x504b…b939backed Under | 33c | 107.39$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 56cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 51c | 107.05$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.1 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…40d5backed Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa859…fdb5backed Over | 55c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 162 | 62.3%101 W · 61 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 67c | 63.53$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.96 | 269 | 65.4%176 W · 93 L | +48.9wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x0614…ff8bbacked Over | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdd…c6bbbacked Over | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Over | 55c | 52.73$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.73 | 150 | 41.3%62 W · 88 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57c3…44b8backed Over | 61c | 49.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 359 | 58.8%211 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 55c | 47.3$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Under | 45c | 46.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 68c | 43.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 313 | 55.6%174 W · 139 L | +24.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdfab…5ce0backed Under | 43c | 36.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x129b…190abacked Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…f0bebacked Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…fa81backed Over | 47c | 36.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a91…7ebabacked Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 162 | 66%107 W · 55 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4c…ad2fbacked Over | 52c | 31.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +5.1wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa063…338fbacked Over | 44c | 25.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc95b…f819backed Under | 48c | 23.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Over | 75c | 20.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 79 | 73.4%58 W · 21 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CD Riestra vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 1.5this page
- CD Riestra vs. Grêmio FBPA: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CD Riestra vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: CD Riestra (-2.5)Grêmio FBPA won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.