Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Northern Arizona vs. Sacramento State
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x143fa67d20213a9cb53a706faea1a358ba5db3d2aa480b2dea0a935582aa9af1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Northern Arizonaof Northern Arizona, Sacramento State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,319
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,311
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,319 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee5b…0e96backed Sacramento State | 38c | 1,298$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.24 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e85…4d99backed Northern Arizona | 62c | 1,298$805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.24 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa3…d3ebbacked Sacramento State | 50c | 288$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2b…1206backed Northern Arizona | 50c | 286$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +50%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d3…2425backed Northern Arizona | 60c | 145$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d79…6774backed Northern Arizona | 51c | 91$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.59 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 57cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2491…bd80backed Sacramento State | 40c | 86$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2670…714bbacked Northern Arizona | 50c | 67$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…1aefbacked Sacramento State | 50c | 65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd332…4b9bbacked Sacramento State | 40c | 59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8377…de6fbacked Sacramento State | 49c | 56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc712…fdb9backed Northern Arizona | 60c | 54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58fb…f8c2backed Sacramento State | 49c | 52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a46…bacdbacked Northern Arizona | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e9…e16abacked Sacramento State | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…f6e5backed Sacramento State | 40c | 34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…1078backed Northern Arizona | 63c | 31.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 247 | 59.5%147 W · 100 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1606…0e67backed Sacramento State | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5da…c4a7backed Sacramento State | 40c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Northern Arizona | 60c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 283 | 35%99 W · 184 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…13febacked Sacramento State | 40c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95a1…e654backed Northern Arizona | 51c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8021…76ccbacked Northern Arizona | 60c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4178…4f03backed Northern Arizona | 60c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4471…2339backed Northern Arizona | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6296…a5babacked Northern Arizona | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaea…c402backed Northern Arizona | 60c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc189…fcd4backed Northern Arizona | 60c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 61cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.