Fifa International · resolved market
Will Australia win on 2025-10-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14e1638ff7c800df795f2d59b4d53c576a59d3170515840e0755316be8427920
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,084
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,270
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,084 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 78c | 6,508$5,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,403.11 | 246 | 47.6%117 W · 129 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 21c | 5,396$1,158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,158.16 | 605 | 11.4%69 W · 536 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…50c9backed Yes | 26c | 1,309$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.9 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb5…6530backed Yes | 22c | 911.9$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed No | 80c | 677$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.4 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x883f…aad2backed Yes | 22c | 636.36$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfb…2398backed Yes | 18c | 566.67$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked No | 78c | 438$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.83 | 707 | 50.1%354 W · 353 L | +25.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Yes | 20c | 400$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 274 | 34.3%94 W · 180 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked No | 79c | 319.46$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked No | 80c | 232.5$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 81 | 63%51 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 79c | 231.25$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.76 | 346 | 30.1%104 W · 242 L | -21.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 78c | 224$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.28 | 120 | 47.5%57 W · 63 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 79c | 209$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.06 | 465 | 36.1%168 W · 297 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 79c | 205.35$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.06 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ef…9e7abacked Yes | 21c | 159.38$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.47 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8214…2a5ebacked Yes | 23c | 141.67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb125…69ebbacked No | 20c | 115.37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.3 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +11.0wins | +0.16per pick | 23cpaid | +69%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…be29backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 111 | 37.8%42 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4206…bb16backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked No | 78c | 90.91$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7d…2d33backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb1…6240backed Yes | 23c | 83.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 21c | 80.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 164 | 42.7%70 W · 94 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Yes | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked No | 80c | 61.05$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 222 | 42.8%95 W · 127 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 18c | 56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 789 | 27.5%217 W · 572 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed No | 79c | 31.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked No | 79c | 30.35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 1,045 | 29.3%306 W · 739 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Australia win on 2025-10-14?this page
- Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw?No won
- Will United States win on 2025-10-14?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.