Stocks · resolved market
Will Meta (META) close above $630 on March 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x154eb2a48cdcdfe2ea331a108641c7b0d22159b7d1dd2e8515f90e90fb215854
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,887
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,887 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf7c0…3b4ebacked No | 40c | 757$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…c446backed No | 57c | 674$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +488.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a07…e406backed No | 29c | 396$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8da7…6572backed No | 29c | 383$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 49c | 364.03$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.42 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd951…d039backed No | 45c | 315$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf6…6b08backed Yes | 55c | 296$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb497…c7c7backed Yes | 55c | 278$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8066…82d5backed Yes | 70c | 268$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…fddcbacked Yes | 55c | 262$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x766a…f2bcbacked Yes | 70c | 258$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x289d…81d4backed Yes | 55c | 248$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb94…2e04backed No | 45c | 248$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3943…f3c1backed No | 45c | 242$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4811…7acbbacked Yes | 71c | 236$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9415…4c4cbacked Yes | 51c | 234$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…c802backed Yes | 70c | 231$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…aba6backed Yes | 71c | 228$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35ad…5d8abacked No | 45c | 224$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad6f…f8eabacked Yes | 53c | 224$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf224…3fdfbacked Yes | 71c | 166$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…8403backed Yes | 55c | 165$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked No | 35c | 160.69$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.85 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e3…f58fbacked Yes | 71c | 149$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 32c | 112.7$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.56 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +27%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x755c…e9aebacked Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 229 | 64.2%147 W · 82 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed No | 39c | 35.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…9bf7backed Yes | 64c | 30.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Meta (META) close above $630 on March 17?this page
- Will Meta (META) close above $590 on March 17?Yes won
- Will Meta (META) close above $620 on March 17?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.