Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Stetson vs. Austin Peay
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15baaaef052624f87e54ce3b775a96cdd50e4a459f3f26ad58fe60a8b1624753
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Austin Peayof Stetson, Austin Peay
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $986
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $962
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $986 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x42e3…0f87backed Austin Peay | 50c | 196$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Austin Peay | 48c | 139$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.52 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0893…8bbfbacked Stetson | 50c | 73$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x451d…f2b0backed Stetson | 50c | 58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -60%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac0b…e7fdbacked Stetson | 50c | 52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf305…e0adbacked Austin Peay | 50c | 46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6a…020ebacked Stetson | 50c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d98…ea33backed Stetson | 51c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e62…fdc3backed Austin Peay | 49c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb7…1643backed Stetson | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ad…5ef6backed Austin Peay | 49c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf36…223bbacked Stetson | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66a2…8ea3backed Stetson | 51c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…0787backed Austin Peay | 80c | 14.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 284 | 45.1%128 W · 156 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.