Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 74°F or below on September 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x186f8ff28e630c627c3fc7e7c470059df65cfe4f35b34475fd18c623a409896a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,727
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,562
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,727 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfbc8…b9fdbacked No | 0c | 14,490$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6543…cb1cbacked No | 0c | 12,750$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x937b…394bbacked No | 0c | 2,420$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea3d…eb20backed No | 61c | 1,186$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe44…3b76backed Yes | 35c | 871.73$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.46 | 95 | 36.8%35 W · 60 L | +11.1wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +118.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x82c7…8ac8backed No | 2c | 784.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 2c | 686.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671.04 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 2c | 620.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.08 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…1bbabacked Yes | 26c | 542.16$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.62 | 121 | 25.6%31 W · 90 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa022…242fbacked No | 4c | 270.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x173f…9c2cbacked No | 6c | 234.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…005fbacked Yes | 39c | 172.9$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.25 | 600 | 33.8%203 W · 397 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 15c | 127.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b7…753dbacked No | 12c | 123.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8c…6611backed No | 10c | 113.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4891…3822backed No | 12c | 96.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb49…43b0backed No | 13c | 85.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36f1…ec06backed Yes | 76c | 76.76$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0241…5415backed No | 16c | 70.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29e3…15d4backed No | 25c | 64.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa382…904abacked No | 22c | 55.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1d…282abacked No | 28c | 52.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdec0…4f32backed No | 23c | 51.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f9…bfe3backed No | 61c | 23.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x926f…91b8backed No | 68c | 21.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x293e…9962backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 157 | 59.2%93 W · 64 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8278…9464backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 132 | 50%66 W · 66 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7de…c0e6backed No | 68c | 19.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad06…80e2backed No | 67c | 19.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e84…1196backed No | 69c | 19.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…6f11backed No | 64c | 18.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf413…ec20backed No | 65c | 17.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd236…6810backed No | 77c | 16.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 74°F or below on September 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 75-76°F on September 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 77-78°F on September 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 79-80°F on September 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 81-82°F on September 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.