Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Men's: Alexander Blockx vs Alex Molcan
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1914b09b859bfc3becfbf033c464e8ac23cdc9bca54e7b3305f9fbbcc9b6a7ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Blockxof Blockx, Molcan
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,123
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,329
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,123 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a6f…f8ebbacked Blockx | 75c | 1,008$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Molcan | 13c | 933.75$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.86 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Molcan | 25c | 798$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.5 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…dba8backed Blockx | 75c | 240$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 142 | 59.2%84 W · 58 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Molcan | 20c | 73.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8252…383abacked Molcan | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…dd64backed Blockx | 77c | 65.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3225…e6c6backed Molcan | 27c | 54.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x176e…8f96backed Blockx | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 178 | 63.5%113 W · 65 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Blockx | 72c | 17.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.