Serie A · resolved market
Will Fiorentina win on 2025-08-31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19f82119ecaece4d4ff5751383c45ac5976780dadacf052d16133b03dd5e8541
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,627
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,674
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,627 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc71e…f450backed Yes | 42c | 507$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.94 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked No | 58c | 499.99$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.99 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 65c | 357.74$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.05 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…8781backed Yes | 36c | 274.11$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 40c | 265$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…8e9abacked Yes | 16c | 199.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed No | 63c | 157.56$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.14 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f0…6a90backed Yes | 25c | 143$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 43cpaid | +80.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x698a…96debacked Yes | 33c | 117.52$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ed…04cbbacked Yes | 37c | 101.24$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…c622backed Yes | 35c | 85.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed No | 60c | 85$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 147 | 42.9%63 W · 84 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 59c | 82.94$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49ab…f2a9backed No | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0385…8b6fbacked Yes | 41c | 55.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc48d…8a40backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed No | 60c | 40.79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4021…956abacked Yes | 25c | 40.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c80…f730backed Yes | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…0918backed Yes | 43c | 30.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3058…5412backed Yes | 42c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 84 | 56%47 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fiorentina win on 2025-08-31?this page
- Will Torino vs. Fiorentina end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Torino win on 2025-08-31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.