Tennis · resolved market
ITF Kurume: Mei Yamaguchi vs Haruka Kaji
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19fc3d3ae7ea6071868d6d83e809b099b28ffb0b830bac865efe8ca7779d193a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mei Yamaguchiof Mei Yamaguchi, Haruka Kaji
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,489
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,503
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,489 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Haruka Kaji | 78c | 228.31$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.11 | 8,241 | 45.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L | +166.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Mei Yamaguchi | 47c | 212.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.89 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…7d2bbacked Haruka Kaji | 53c | 209.05$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.8 | 326 | 49.1%160 W · 166 L | -18.4wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82cb…a4eebacked Mei Yamaguchi | 21c | 118.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.84 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae8e…08f9backed Mei Yamaguchi | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 116 | 53.4%62 W · 54 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59a1…8263backed Haruka Kaji | 74c | 75.55$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.95 | 185 | 59.5%110 W · 75 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0267…7f7ebacked Haruka Kaji | 58c | 62.27$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.18 | 304 | 36.2%110 W · 194 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf01f…e8fbbacked Mei Yamaguchi | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd93d…27a0backed Haruka Kaji | 54c | 43.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 516 | 44.8%231 W · 285 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe99…506bbacked Haruka Kaji | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 678 | 52.1%353 W · 325 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…a4f0backed Mei Yamaguchi | 46c | 36.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 540 | 50.4%272 W · 268 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Haruka Kaji | 78c | 36.45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 6,840 | 48.8%3,341 W · 3,499 L | +58.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9081…8a6ebacked Haruka Kaji | 78c | 25.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 417 | 68.1%284 W · 133 L | -21.4wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d04…022bbacked Haruka Kaji | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 145 | 31.7%46 W · 99 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff87…f5f7backed Mei Yamaguchi | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Mei Yamaguchi | 43c | 23.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 7,107 | 39.7%2,820 W · 4,287 L | -17.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Haruka Kaji | 55c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 1,794 | 60.2%1,080 W · 714 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…390dbacked Haruka Kaji | 78c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.