Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on February 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a018937ad3b128a90a776825c43bfd6f71fcb0552e5d390bcefa83acbdcae9e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,506
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,462
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,506 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcea7…1831backed No | 0c | 4,187$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 73c | 335.72$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.97 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9a…3d84backed No | 9c | 327.54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.84 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa271…2727backed No | 4c | 320.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 28c | 319.43$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.68 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 34c | 298.11$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.42 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 286.86$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.17 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 75c | 271.39$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.27 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 29c | 244.52$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.44 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 70c | 236.58$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.59 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 74c | 209.64$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.34 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf911…8d8ebacked No | 66c | 182.01$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.5 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe86b…9371backed Yes | 74c | 148.44$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 35c | 139.67$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.33 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 28c | 112$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.09 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd60…bbd9backed No | 14c | 111.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 34c | 98.91$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.74 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xde81…c5dbbacked Yes | 28c | 96.3$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 28c | 80.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.87 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 50c | 80.31$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.99 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1a…1211backed Yes | 36c | 73.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9736…64b8backed No | 71c | 72$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.24 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11de…4e67backed No | 23c | 70$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +3.9wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3d…2c18backed No | 62c | 64.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa301…b4efbacked No | 67c | 63.46$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.83 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe82…7056backed No | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 66c | 45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd64c…2c13backed No | 70c | 40.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac6…b663backed No | 61c | 38.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…a612backed Yes | 64c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -9.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a76…d1a6backed No | 62c | 32.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x004a…fb69backed No | 66c | 28.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 17cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf8…11b2backed Yes | 46c | 26.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e92…bf8dbacked No | 42c | 24.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x08fc…3c2dbacked Yes | 75c | 23.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd21c…8628backed No | 60c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11c5…70e3backed Yes | 79c | 20.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xac2b…e724backed No | 67c | 20.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1709…a226backed Yes | 76c | 14.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.41 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on February 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 59°F or below on February 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 70°F or higher on February 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 60-61°F on February 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 62-63°F on February 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 64-65°F on February 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on February 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.