Asian League · resolved market
Urawa Red Diamonds vs. FC Machida Zelvia: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b67a8c9fa838056c4eb8e8db6b61601cfdc5c1dd042cfe330cd29575aa9d50c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,170
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,170 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 50c | 589.75$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.78 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Yes | 51c | 394.39$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.39 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aab…15c5backed Yes | 50c | 236$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x020e…b3a6backed Yes | 52c | 187.92$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ce…faa8backed No | 48c | 185$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f00…a266backed Yes | 52c | 184.82$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38aa…8d98backed Yes | 52c | 184.76$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe165…d35ebacked Yes | 52c | 184.71$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba9…2d1ebacked No | 48c | 179$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6593…4654backed No | 48c | 177$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb97…8c63backed No | 48c | 177$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3dc…f09cbacked No | 48c | 169$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d90…b27fbacked Yes | 52c | 168.08$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa26c…2a67backed Yes | 52c | 166.29$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eab…dbc6backed No | 48c | 166$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8021…44cabacked No | 48c | 159$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1de7…ef26backed No | 48c | 157$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c62…e498backed No | 48c | 156$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0fc…e3c0backed Yes | 52c | 155.13$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10a6…3085backed Yes | 52c | 151.18$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…99a4backed Yes | 52c | 140.87$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x956f…9c2dbacked Yes | 52c | 140.24$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2734…aecdbacked No | 48c | 139$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3d…fd74backed No | 43c | 33.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x639f…6b8dbacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf1…a57bbacked Yes | 39c | 26.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb595…5922backed Yes | 57c | 25.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 66 | 92.4%61 W · 5 L | +17.8wins | +0.27per pick | 65cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 49c | 21.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Urawa Red Diamonds vs. FC Machida Zelvia: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- Spread: FC Machida Zelvia (-1.5)Urawa Red Diamonds won
- Urawa Red Diamonds vs. FC Machida Zelvia: O/U 1.5Over won
- Urawa Red Diamonds vs. FC Machida Zelvia: O/U 2.5Over won
- Urawa Red Diamonds vs. FC Machida Zelvia: O/U 3.5Under won
- Urawa Red Diamonds vs. FC Machida Zelvia: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.