Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
VMI vs. Mercer
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1bb35c8000b27b4d25a80b8a7de7e6c72c5b2e8a2fa49e6310ebf0b9ed879a8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- VMIof VMI, Mercer
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,364
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,348
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,364 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x40e3…0787backed Mercer | 66c | 692.7$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.1 | 284 | 45.1%128 W · 156 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed VMI | 34c | 690$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.4 | 391 | 44.5%174 W · 217 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Mercer | 76c | 409.79$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.25 | 530 | 57.4%304 W · 226 L | +33.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked VMI | 24c | 379$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.04 | 283 | 35%99 W · 184 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89d8…7d2dbacked VMI | 50c | 187$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef71…b745backed Mercer | 50c | 152$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8b…5a6dbacked Mercer | 50c | 133$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3093…2dcebacked Mercer | 50c | 111$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x343e…b855backed Mercer | 50c | 94$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4b2…fbefbacked VMI | 50c | 86$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3c…ddd9backed Mercer | 50c | 72$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8927…5497backed VMI | 50c | 72$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8b…e4e3backed VMI | 50c | 64$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9407…39aebacked VMI | 50c | 58$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf954…fcd3backed VMI | 50c | 56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff98…74dcbacked VMI | 50c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ab…84ddbacked VMI | 51c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a6f…9156backed VMI | 49c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0444…cc80backed Mercer | 51c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb280…c71fbacked Mercer | 51c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf25…c224backed VMI | 49c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcae2…7f3bbacked Mercer | 50c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.