College Football · resolved market
Will Iowa St. beat West Virginia?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1bbefe0b93683a27903f3f92469d61715a494f6c43e9e3900d78cf15471d3647
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- ISUof ISU, WV
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,295
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,725
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,295 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3168…6734backed ISU | 56c | 1,355$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.99 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked WV | 39c | 1,209$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 231 | 45.5%105 W · 126 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf59e…39cfbacked WV | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2376…30f5backed ISU | 52c | 782.04$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.04 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed WV | 50c | 480.49$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.94 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…715cbacked ISU | 62c | 322.58$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.58 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…8669backed WV | 41c | 300$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…d38ebacked WV | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b23…8278backed ISU | 68c | 165$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.95 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed WV | 40c | 150$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef3…3d1bbacked ISU | 61c | 139.34$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.34 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 47cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed ISU | 65c | 91.67$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.86 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57fa…51c4backed ISU | 52c | 57.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.64 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed WV | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 473 | 31.5%149 W · 324 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49de…4dc5backed ISU | 56c | 37.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb55e…3aecbacked ISU | 62c | 36.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed ISU | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 188 | 58%109 W · 79 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iowa St. beat West Virginia?this page
- Will Iowa St. beat West Virginia by 4 or more points?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.