CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Ursa (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #2 Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1cf887c921d29986e95950f8fa37e1f5b58c84c1eb131c18234cdc87fc90e958
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 1WINof 1WIN, Ursa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,410
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,410 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x31c1…7047backed 1WIN | 68c | 1,468$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7333…ca16backed Ursa | 1c | 1,300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 103 | 0%0 W · 103 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked 1WIN | 78c | 1,145$898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.72 | 2,326 | 55.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L | +44.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Ursa | 32c | 1,105$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.37 | 3,096 | 48.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L | +135.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Ursa | 25c | 726.96$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.13 | 2,066 | 41.5%858 W · 1,208 L | -49.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40ce…bf90backed 1WIN | 63c | 700$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.39 | 260 | 54.2%141 W · 119 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a011backed Ursa | 36c | 615.29$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.68 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Ursa | 16c | 502.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.48 | 2,328 | 51.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L | +92.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…44f1backed Ursa | 37c | 462.16$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 178 | 47.2%84 W · 94 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked 1WIN | 70c | 439.81$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.44 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed 1WIN | 75c | 427.96$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.4 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0818…0c22backed Ursa | 20c | 401$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc38…d22bbacked 1WIN | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Ursa | 34c | 328$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.23 | 497 | 45.9%228 W · 269 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc14d…f137backed 1WIN | 62c | 327.83$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.26 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -8.7wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b5f…94dbbacked Ursa | 20c | 327$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510c…522fbacked Ursa | 16c | 309$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Ursa | 33c | 303$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.12 | 489 | 48.7%238 W · 251 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc98…937fbacked Ursa | 17c | 302$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Ursa | 29c | 289$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.68 | 543 | 46.2%251 W · 292 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Ursa | 29c | 280$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.85 | 1,033 | 61.6%636 W · 397 L | +87.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed 1WIN | 62c | 270.33$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.41 | 872 | 44.8%391 W · 481 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…26b7backed Ursa | 38c | 244$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.72 | 330 | 44.5%147 W · 183 L | +7.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked Ursa | 33c | 234.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.55 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed Ursa | 32c | 223$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.03 | 247 | 47%116 W · 131 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed 1WIN | 63c | 215.55$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.7 | 154 | 36.4%56 W · 98 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567e…e8fbbacked Ursa | 37c | 187.46$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.7 | 219 | 39.7%87 W · 132 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked 1WIN | 63c | 181.8$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.27 | 253 | 37.9%96 W · 157 L | -14.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe488…f2c0backed 1WIN | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66fb…a1e5backed 1WIN | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Ursa | 22c | 119.77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 2,102 | 16.8%353 W · 1,749 L | -286.5wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5330…4689backed 1WIN | 80c | 115$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2f…dd1bbacked 1WIN | 79c | 114$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Ursa | 9c | 107.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 2,468 | 24.6%607 W · 1,861 L | -317.8wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Ursa | 32c | 104.56$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.43 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2455…f5dfbacked 1WIN | 79c | 102$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Ursa | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 246 | 33.3%82 W · 164 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25ee…79a5backed 1WIN | 79c | 98$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3dc…cfbdbacked 1WIN | 80c | 87$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…b819backed 1WIN | 70c | 86.31$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.31 | 148 | 53.4%79 W · 69 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16ca…7c36backed 1WIN | 79c | 86$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7129…4517backed Ursa | 38c | 84.59$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 1,076 | 37.6%405 W · 671 L | +34.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe64b…9cf1backed Ursa | 19c | 80.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +6.2wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +30%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Ursa | 39c | 80$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 1,281 | 37.8%484 W · 797 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Ursa | 30c | 79.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 224 | 47.8%107 W · 117 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x116e…f26fbacked Ursa | 16c | 78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc371…1e28backed Ursa | 21c | 72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 468 | 43.4%203 W · 265 L | -11.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x155b…d7babacked 1WIN | 75c | 63$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 406 | 52.2%212 W · 194 L | +22.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2254…bfe0backed Ursa | 36c | 58.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97b8…b7b5backed 1WIN | 66c | 57.95$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.97 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5337…222bbacked 1WIN | 75c | 47.41$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 124 | 52.4%65 W · 59 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1c…35c6backed 1WIN | 62c | 40.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 214 | 54.2%116 W · 98 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x931c…bf4bbacked Ursa | 39c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 323 | 51.4%166 W · 157 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37d7…f131backed Ursa | 38c | 37.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 334 | 51.5%172 W · 162 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed Ursa | 38c | 35.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 217 | 52.5%114 W · 103 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc0…8f18backed Ursa | 38c | 27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4669…a7b8backed 1WIN | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 76 | 64.5%49 W · 27 L | +9.7wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed 1WIN | 70c | 24.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 1,109 | 50.5%560 W · 549 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb2…e33fbacked 1WIN | 60c | 21.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea49…434fbacked 1WIN | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 150 | 57.3%86 W · 64 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc10a…46b5backed 1WIN | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 81 | 66.7%54 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed 1WIN | 80c | 17.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 2,061 | 50.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Ursa (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #2 Playoffsthis page
- Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Ursa - Map 1 Winner1WIN won
- Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Ursa - Map 2 Winner1WIN won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.