South American Leagues · resolved market
CA River Plate vs. Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d6e85dbd387b16cf826340937fce148efc3929c8d13aec3eaaa81e6b7ba581d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,458
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,207
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,458 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0ee4…276fbacked Under | 66c | 1,000$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 42c | 941.66$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.01 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2969…6d76backed Under | 37c | 534.32$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.67 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 52c | 468.67$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.87 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc51a…7ad9backed Over | 63c | 406.4$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.03 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 38c | 234.18$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.12 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x012a…c01dbacked Over | 43c | 231.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 46c | 217.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 218 | 39.4%86 W · 132 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 54c | 201.23$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.05 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 45c | 141.27$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.57 | 493 | 41%202 W · 291 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed Over | 58c | 100.68$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ccc…9918backed Over | 49c | 88.58$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 50c | 87.71$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.92 | 284 | 43%122 W · 162 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 359 | 58.8%211 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…4287backed Under | 60c | 65.24$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.36 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…219ebacked Under | 59c | 59.29$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.29 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -5.2wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 65c | 52.03$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 449 | 39.2%176 W · 273 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d0…b5d0backed Under | 59c | 42.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e41…71f6backed Over | 43c | 33.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…71fabacked Under | 59c | 33.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb0…466fbacked Under | 54c | 29.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x691c…d7e6backed Under | 59c | 24.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd5…ef85backed Under | 57c | 21.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA River Plate vs. Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata: O/U 2.5this page
- CA River Plate vs. Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata: O/U 1.5Over won
- CA River Plate vs. Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.