Tennis · resolved market
Ningbo Open: Clara Tauson vs Ajla Tomljanovic
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1da1dfb089d1931c21be02cb7472ec9846b434beaa561655ec4cdc7be7eb0387
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tomljanovicof Tauson, Tomljanovic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,117
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,184
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,117 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Tomljanovic | 27c | 4,683$1,243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,440.31 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Tomljanovic | 22c | 2,421$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,879.6 | 170 | 46.5%79 W · 91 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Tomljanovic | 16c | 2,340$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,966.33 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Tauson | 66c | 785.36$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.78 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Tomljanovic | 34c | 722.58$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.9 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Tauson | 67c | 651.66$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.61 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked Tomljanovic | 36c | 408.33$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.33 | 264 | 62.1%164 W · 100 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Tauson | 30c | 374.13$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.37 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Tomljanovic | 33c | 364.55$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.12 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Tauson | 72c | 300$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 58 | 69%40 W · 18 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Tomljanovic | 42c | 260.34$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.34 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5c…48f9backed Tomljanovic | 16c | 250$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.5 | 154 | 47.4%73 W · 81 L | +14.1wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Tauson | 75c | 243.52$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.04 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Tauson | 66c | 179.71$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.61 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60a1…1485backed Tomljanovic | 36c | 170$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.8 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Tauson | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe944…0837backed Tauson | 33c | 150$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.35 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Tomljanovic | 28c | 148.59$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.69 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Tomljanovic | 17c | 138$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.28 | 318 | 19.2%61 W · 257 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Tauson | 64c | 132$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.48 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Tauson | 80c | 125$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 177 | 67.2%119 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Tomljanovic | 50c | 102.45$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.49 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Tomljanovic | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98d…745ebacked Tomljanovic | 28c | 71.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.97 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc757…f18cbacked Tauson | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.