Lol · resolved market
Game Handicap: TSW (-2.5) vs Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming (+2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e3a6c05d77cd848db41d4460315126c0e4903120431efb1d0aa445807a7c703
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gamingof Team Secret Whales, Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,965
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,163
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,965 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef26…05babacked Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming | 50c | 5,500$2,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,750 | 1,267 | 37.7%478 W · 789 L | +35.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Team Secret Whales | 50c | 5,500$2,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,750 | 1,827 | 45.6%834 W · 993 L | +26.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Team Secret Whales | 50c | 550$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 159 | 45.3%72 W · 87 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d1…f540backed Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming | 50c | 350.1$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.1 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming | 50c | 214$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107 | 595 | 48.2%287 W · 308 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Team Secret Whales | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 102 | 40.2%41 W · 61 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3468…754fbacked Team Secret Whales | 44c | 132.5$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.41 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…a506backed Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming | 50c | 129$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.59 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67b6…00bcbacked Team Secret Whales | 31c | 68.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 500 | 40.8%204 W · 296 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b95…b23ebacked Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming | 69c | 68.48$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 1,049 | 44.6%468 W · 581 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03d7…9169backed Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: TSW (-2.5) vs Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming (+2.5)this page
- Game Handicap: TSW (-1.5) vs Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming (+1.5)Team Secret Whales won
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Over won
- LoL: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming vs Team Secret Whales (BO5) - LCP PlayoffsTeam Secret Whales won
- LoL: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming vs Team Secret Whales - Game 1 WinnerFukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming won
- LoL: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming vs Team Secret Whales - Game 2 WinnerTeam Secret Whales won
- LoL: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming vs Team Secret Whales - Game 3 WinnerTeam Secret Whales won
- LoL: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming vs Team Secret Whales - Game 4 WinnerTeam Secret Whales won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.