Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Miami (OH) vs. Western Michigan
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e7ebfc15dc1547856f44ff5838e81564539c49687672ad57ab4a4c8b01938ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Western Michiganof Miami (OH), Western Michigan
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $763
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $763
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $763 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xffb7…fc5abacked Western Michigan | 50c | 270$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42e3…0f87backed Miami (OH) | 50c | 138$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18b7…f8bbbacked Miami (OH) | 50c | 132$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88bb…1dbfbacked Western Michigan | 60c | 63$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf7e…4858backed Miami (OH) | 40c | 63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa55e…79a2backed Miami (OH) | 50c | 49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cdc…248abacked Western Michigan | 50c | 49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc62f…48e1backed Miami (OH) | 51c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d3…7babbacked Western Michigan | 49c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd4…8643backed Miami (OH) | 71c | 23.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed Miami (OH) | 71c | 20.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 429 | 48.5%208 W · 221 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.