Champions League · resolved market
Will Aston Villa beat Juventus?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x204a178c92a4f696a2a0b4909b91869a91bb24ce0cfea5bc62cf22d27e961827
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,913
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,113
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,913 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8bea…2becbacked Yes | 43c | 8,445$3,591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,590.99 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20cc…ebc0backed No | 75c | 8,373$6,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,093.33 | 54 | 63%34 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf784…f897backed Yes | 25c | 8,373$2,093 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,093.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -27%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccb…0a10backed No | 58c | 6,529$3,757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,772.13 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fd…a7dabacked No | 57c | 2,632$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,131.58 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x337b…0503backed No | 59c | 1,386$818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fde…ed39backed Yes | 41c | 1,208$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…039abacked No | 58c | 999.99$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.99 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 59c | 999.97$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.99 | 196 | 45.4%89 W · 107 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a67…dc7cbacked Yes | 41c | 965.74$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.95 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 41c | 800$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328 | 138 | 47.1%65 W · 73 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958e…1a56backed Yes | 42c | 786$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31cf…8834backed No | 59c | 750$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.5 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6011…1cc5backed Yes | 42c | 600$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked No | 59c | 499.99$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205 | 111 | 32.4%36 W · 75 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 43c | 350$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.5 | 115 | 48.7%56 W · 59 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed Yes | 7c | 250$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ec…3344backed Yes | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…cd8cbacked No | 60c | 200$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x530e…a4b2backed Yes | 41c | 170$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.7 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed No | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 206 | 67.5%139 W · 67 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 40c | 133.33$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.33 | 239 | 42.7%102 W · 137 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7432…794bbacked Yes | 41c | 124.39$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe53e…91b0backed Yes | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe220…f862backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1466…1d5abacked Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5e…5d34backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2452…4571backed No | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 57c | 62.79$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 170 | 53.5%91 W · 79 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf765…cdfebacked Yes | 43c | 62.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x621c…5d9abacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Yes | 35c | 61.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 242 | 52.5%127 W · 115 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…cf4cbacked No | 58c | 57.26$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ac…d300backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Yes | 43c | 47.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc3…0dfbbacked No | 59c | 40.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cc…f7d4backed No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…ff34backed No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2399…2332backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked No | 56c | 26.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26d3…4a95backed Yes | 40c | 26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec47…d795backed No | 60c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 79c | 23.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 257 | 35%90 W · 167 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Aston Villa beat Juventus?this page
- Will Juventus beat Aston Villa?No won
- Will the match between Aston Villa and Juventus end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.