MLB · resolved market
PIT Pirates vs. MIA Marlins March 30
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2197eba5000b98bf16d78b38108331a5d68aaf185d979e605aa858bbfa0fd00b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Marlinsof Pirates, Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,005
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,924
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,005 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb928…5fd7backed Marlins | 51c | 1,000$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.21 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…26bfbacked Marlins | 53c | 798$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.06 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7239…6591backed Marlins | 50c | 767.38$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.69 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Pirates | 48c | 619.9$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Marlins | 80c | 500$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.54 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e87…8befbacked Pirates | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Pirates | 13c | 360$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Marlins | 49c | 234.38$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.26 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6929…0e4bbacked Pirates | 31c | 220$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.47 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea5…2af9backed Pirates | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x931f…d15dbacked Pirates | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Pirates | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Marlins | 48c | 93.49$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.61 | 146 | 47.3%69 W · 77 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Marlins | 52c | 85$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.12 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5220…4e88backed Marlins | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9584…380bbacked Pirates | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Pirates | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Marlins | 49c | 47.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Pirates | 51c | 43.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Pirates | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd3…7214backed Pirates | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Pirates | 51c | 24.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Marlins | 49c | 24.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- PIT Pirates vs. MIA Marlins March 30this page
- ATL Braves vs. SD Padres March 30Padres won
- BAL Orioles vs. TOR Blue Jays March 30Blue Jays won
- BOS Red Sox vs. TEX Rangers March 30Rangers won
- CHC Cubs vs. ARI Diamondbacks March 30Diamondbacks won
- CLE Guardians vs. KC Royals March 30Guardians won
- COL Rockies vs. TB Rays March 30Rays won
- LAA Angels vs. CWS White Sox March 30Angels won
- MIL Brewers vs. NYY Yankees March 30Yankees won
- MIN Twins vs. STL Cardinals March 30Cardinals won
- OAK Athletics vs. SEA Mariners March 30Mariners won
- PHI Phillies vs. WSH Nationals March 30Nationals won
- SF Giants vs. CIN Reds March 30Giants won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.