Token Launches · resolved market
Hyperliquid Up or Down on February 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2270c371d023e534be83da07b298bf7500e15f5bee259bf39e6a149c39fe3cda
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Downof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,158
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,381
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,158 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb464…359dbacked Down | 52c | 5,000$2,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,400 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…cb8ebacked Up | 35c | 3,000$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb988…a50bbacked Down | 66c | 3,000$1,980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5725…d3f5backed Up | 53c | 3,000$1,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,590 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5150…fe1abacked Up | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcee8…2d37backed Up | 48c | 1,845$886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$885.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f7…2dcabacked Up | 34c | 1,350$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d7…526ebacked Up | 48c | 1,155$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcac0…6b98backed Down | 47c | 1,030$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe237…9eb2backed Down | 65c | 1,020$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a56ebacked Down | 47c | 1,020$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x984d…8c01backed Down | 30c | 1,010$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$707 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0c…3e00backed Down | 65c | 1,010$657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9e…932dbacked Up | 70c | 1,010$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9a…76d2backed Up | 30c | 995$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…0834backed Down | 70c | 995$697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +99.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39a1…646fbacked Down | 65c | 970$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x899a…7097backed Down | 47c | 950$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb793…8d80backed Up | 34c | 850$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda96…d4c8backed Up | 34c | 800$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2993…a2f8backed Up | 8c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.