Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Marist vs. Mercer
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2274ea603dc401ccfd0ed03f98a6b126ac28cadc60288cdb4c2b9b741e5e3e7a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Maristof Marist, Mercer
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,447
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,344
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,447 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x480d…f219backed Marist | 38c | 849$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.97 | 391 | 44.5%174 W · 217 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…0787backed Mercer | 62c | 692.5$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.3 | 284 | 45.1%128 W · 156 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Mercer | 62c | 258.44$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.12 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Mercer | 45c | 227$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.99 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3093…2dcebacked Marist | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x928f…e1c4backed Marist | 39c | 85$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaed0…ff24backed Marist | 39c | 82$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.02 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +118.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x685a…7b52backed Mercer | 61c | 68$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd0…c2c5backed Marist | 39c | 68$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.48 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc2…3062backed Mercer | 61c | 61$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…8c73backed Marist | 50c | 58$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +70%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd1…bc8dbacked Mercer | 61c | 54$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.94 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +70%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6af6…2a69backed Mercer | 61c | 52$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x218c…a2a7backed Mercer | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a2…3c55backed Mercer | 61c | 47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182e…58b8backed Mercer | 37c | 46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf682…78eebacked Marist | 63c | 45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x947e…210cbacked Mercer | 37c | 43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9095…7b05backed Marist | 39c | 38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdabf…98e2backed Marist | 63c | 37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…1078backed Marist | 41c | 36.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 247 | 59.5%147 W · 100 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a7…cca1backed Marist | 39c | 36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a5…0cf2backed Mercer | 37c | 34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8be…ecd2backed Marist | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…43b1backed Marist | 63c | 29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +64%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf396…9522backed Marist | 63c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x174c…f06cbacked Mercer | 61c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d1…d7acbacked Marist | 63c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a6…5e9bbacked Marist | 63c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef5…36cdbacked Mercer | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfc…7352backed Mercer | 62c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x531d…0410backed Mercer | 61c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55fc…a259backed Mercer | 61c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x646b…4d88backed Marist | 50c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22dc…2bc7backed Mercer | 62c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.