NFL · resolved market
Will the Colts beat the Titans by 4 or more points?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22a2368fdd4451770827417ad6dac97fed12616e2010384186710972ff316797
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Coltsof Colts, Titans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,414
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,414
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,414 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f85…d745backed Colts | 56c | 3,616$2,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,590.89 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Titans | 44c | 3,594$1,581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,581.13 | 442 | 46.8%207 W · 235 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaef8…2113backed Titans | 53c | 915$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffa…737fbacked Colts | 47c | 915$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b1…1d82backed Titans | 54c | 915$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76e3…1715backed Colts | 46c | 915$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…794abacked Titans | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed Colts | 49c | 23.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd349…f37dbacked Colts | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…81e5backed Colts | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Colts beat the Titans by 4 or more points?this page
- Will the 49ers beat the Dolphins by 2 or more points?Dolphins won
- Will the Bills beat the Patriots by 15 or more points?Bills -14.5 vs PatriotsPatriots won
- Will the Cardinals beat the Panthers by 5 or more points?Panthers won
- Will the Rams beat the Jets by 3 or more points?Rams won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.