World Politics · resolved market
Will Evelyn Matthei come in fourth in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22b33c2cac283148986e12fe45f822a39b60d93b1a81fcd8ce84a42bbbf73c7c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,689
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,463
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,689 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3fe9…8308backed Yes | 2c | 4,827$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.92 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x020d…36f0backed Yes | 45c | 2,800$1,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,260 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb3…641fbacked Yes | 23c | 2,271$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.85 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x064f…e8e6backed Yes | 5c | 2,002$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e77…a16bbacked No | 55c | 1,800$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b9…b836backed No | 54c | 1,367$733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.83 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x490a…db32backed Yes | 10c | 1,166$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.61 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 27cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 17c | 899.99$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0489…ddf7backed Yes | 64c | 548.28$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.43 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5831…6928backed Yes | 65c | 513.85$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3e…a898backed No | 55c | 510$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa06c…ef30backed Yes | 52c | 496.04$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -58%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 20c | 495.18$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.99 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x962f…cc22backed No | 55c | 490$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0e…4838backed Yes | 21c | 404.91$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.05 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7767…6ec6backed Yes | 55c | 362.38$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…56a3backed Yes | 49c | 265.1$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.49 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf00…0704backed Yes | 68c | 265.06$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.01 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab58…b07dbacked Yes | 30c | 260.87$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.26 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd0…edc4backed Yes | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 110 | 17.3%19 W · 91 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed No | 46c | 249.95$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.97 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x442a…7c94backed Yes | 33c | 240$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.19 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5924…a046backed Yes | 65c | 237.65$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbd…8e99backed Yes | 48c | 196$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b06…dedebacked Yes | 48c | 196$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85ee…10c4backed No | 52c | 188$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5536…8637backed Yes | 47c | 183$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87e9…8223backed No | 52c | 181$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31c7…4f36backed No | 53c | 169$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2581…d352backed Yes | 43c | 146.9$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked No | 76c | 141$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.25 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x784f…5df9backed No | 38c | 121.48$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.75 | 74 | 36.5%27 W · 47 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ca…bd97backed Yes | 25c | 121.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…eac7backed Yes | 58c | 80$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 41c | 67.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 98 | 22.4%22 W · 76 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf84…4ab2backed Yes | 50c | 60.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0330…eb8fbacked Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf9…02f5backed Yes | 53c | 58.13$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab1…54e1backed Yes | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…3e56backed Yes | 44c | 55.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +110%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x777e…d384backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa364…792ebacked Yes | 40c | 49.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c0…a720backed No | 56c | 46.8$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc4…c6b9backed Yes | 30c | 45.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +130.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…e826backed Yes | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f0b…9001backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fe…c8c2backed Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 44c | 36.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5781…95a2backed No | 50c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f3…46c9backed Yes | 47c | 29.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa1…0974backed Yes | 50c | 29.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd992…96c0backed No | 43c | 29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 68c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 239 | 21.3%51 W · 188 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78c4…30f2backed Yes | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 48c | 21.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 203 | 28.6%58 W · 145 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Evelyn Matthei come in fourth in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?this page
- Will Alberto Undurraga come in fourth in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?No won
- Will Carolina Tohá come in fourth in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?No won
- Will Francesca Muñoz come in fourth in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?No won
- Will Franco Parisi come in fourth in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?No won
- Will Félix González come in fourth in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?No won
- Will Jaime Mulet come in fourth in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?No won
- Will Johannes Kaiser come in fourth in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?Yes won
- Will José Antonio Kast come in fourth in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?No won
- Will Michelle Bachelet come in fourth in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?No won
- Will Ximena Rincón come in fourth in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.